'Rather than taking a very short-term view on the markets, equity investing should be premised on longer term growth opportunities.'
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Bank credit is likely to grow at a four-year high of 11-12 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of better economic growth and budgetary support from the government, according to a report. In the fiscal ended March 2022, bank advances have likely grown at 9-10 per cent. "Healthy economic growth and budgetary support from the government should lift bank credit growth by 200-300 basis points to 11-12 per cent this fiscal," Crisil Ratings said in the report. The higher credit growth expectation is also supported by the improved resilience of the banking system, it added.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Factors that can push growth include softer interest rates, increased banking sector liquidity, higher rural consumption, salary hikes for state government employees and greater traction in public capex
Debt-ridden Vodafone Idea is planning to begin 5G rollout in six months in select cities and places where 5G device concentration is high, a senior company official said on Friday. Vodafone Idea CEO Akshaya Moondra said the company expects capital expenditure of the company to be in the range of Rs 50,000-Rs 55,000 crore over the next three years with focus on expanding and strengthening 4G coverage.
As a percentage of the aggregate Budget expenditure, it is 12 per cent.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
It would be interesting to see what the government proposes to investors.
Fundraising through the issuance of shares to qualified institutional investors has seen hectic activity in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY24), with 20 companies mobilising over Rs 18,400 crore, more than four-fold from the year-ago period, on positive investors' sentiments. Moreover, the robust trend of Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs) in the first half of the fiscal year 2023-24 is expected to persist throughout the second half of the year too, Sanjay Moorjani, Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, told PTI. Prashant Rao, director and head of equity capital markets, Anand Rathi Investment Banking, said that market and investor sentiments play an important role for these issuances.
'The global situation is not very good.'
The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
'To sustain our growth trajectory, we must continue to explore and capitalise on growth opportunities.'
'Our factories are world-class and are becoming increasingly attractive for our global business leaders to use to serve other markets.'
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
The key risk factors would be anti-incumbency, small vote share swings causing large impact on outcomes and the 2004 example.
Reliance Industries' (RIL's) retail arm, Reliance Retail, is now valued at nearly twice the amount of its decades-old and lucrative oil-to-chemical (O2C) division. Bernstein's latest report on the conglomerate projects a valuation of $112 billion for its retail business, dwarfing the $57 billion valuation of its O2C division. In addition, the research firm valued Jio Platforms, the company's telecom arm, at $77 billion and the renewable energy business at $17 billion.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
South Korean auto giant Hyundai Motor Company is considering tax implications of listing its Indian unit before taking a final call, according to sources privy to the development. Hyundai Motor is mulling an initial public offering (IPO) for its Indian arm to raise around $3 billion (at a valuation of up to $30 billion), and talks are in the early stages between the company and bankers, banking sources revealed. Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL), however, declined to comment on the development.
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
Cement companies witnessed speculative support from investors through FY23 amid hopes of a rebound. After capex announcements in the FY24 Budget, there was further interest due to expectations that government expenditure would boost earnings, besides a generic macro-recovery. Cement earnings were under pressure in FY22 and FY23 due to high raw material and fuel costs; muted demand prevented them passing on the higher cost.
Based on discussions with stakeholders, the ministry is proposing to allocate Rs 26,400 crore for FAME-III subsidy alone with electric two wheelers getting around Rs 8,158 crore, electric buses Rs 9,600 crore and electric three-wheelers Rs 4,100 crore, according to sources in the know. Along with some other components like setting up an innovation fund and money for testing , the total allocation could cross Rs 33,000 crore, estimates suggest.
'It will send a very strong signal that it is now our time to grow.'
'They have started becoming an important player, but not at the same level as they were in the earlier part of the decade.'
On June 30, mining and metals giant Vedanta, announced that it had decided to initiate a strategic review of its steel and steel-making raw material businesses. The review would begin immediately and evaluate a broad range of options, including but not limited to a potential strategic sale of some or all of the steel businesses, the company said in its stock exchange filing. The signs have been there - approaches had been made to steel players over the past year. Last December, Anil Agarwal, chairman Vedanta group, told Business Standard that the steel plant capacity was about 3 million tonnes (mt).
Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
The government had no option but to cut spending to meet its borrowing targets.
The rising goods and services tax (GST) and personal income-tax collections may bolster the Narendra Modi government's ability to announce new schemes or enhance existing ones.
While near-term performance is difficult to predict after a huge run-up, fund managers believe the PSU theme's prospects remain sound over the medium to long term.
Conflicting views on Coal India (CIL) might leave investors confused. The bullish perspective that India has strong power demand (and also high steel production) means high demand for coal. As CIL is the monopoly producer of coal -- supplying over 80 per cent of the domestic requirement - the public sector undertaking should be a beneficiary of the rising power demand.
All the global transitions are working in India's favour, giving it the potential to become a force in today's uncertain world, but one of the country's biggest challenges is inclusive growth, Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran said on Monday. In his address at the JRD Tata Oration, the head of the Tata group also asserted that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is here to stay and it will be beneficial if India prepares for it. Post the cold war era of relative stability and prosperity, the world appears to have given way to unpredictable conflicts and economic uncertainty, he said, adding that the pandemic resulted in supply chain shocks of gigantic proportion.
The upward revision is due to stronger-than-expected GDP numbers for the quarter ended March 2016.
'...Market-linked debentures, high-value insurance, exemptions from capital gains by investment in real estate, etc.' 'So, there are a number of measures directed at collecting a fair share from higher income individuals.'
The combined net sales of 42 listed construction and capital goods companies that have declared their third-quarter results so far were down 2.3 per cent year-on-year in Q3FY21 while core operating profit was up just 4.9 per cent YoY during the quarter.
Clawing the economy back to an 8 per cent growth path will require bringing savings and investment rates closer to 35 per cent on a sustained basis, which were 30.2 and 29.6 per cent, respectively, in FY22, according to a report. As per India Ratings, a large part of investments will have to be in infrastructure, which can help revive private investments by easing supply constraints and offset the weakening of external demand due to global headwinds. Higher investments will have to be accompanied by higher domestic savings to keep the savings-investments gap under check.
'One of the biggest employment generators, the MSMEs, have not got much from the government.'
The government on Monday announced a one-time Rs 10,000 interest-free festival advance to all its officers and employees as part of plans to increase consumer spending to spur demand in the economy.
The power sector is always strongly correlated to economic activity and is receiving its share of investor attention as India's post-Covid-19 recovery continues. India's leading integrated power producer, the public sector undertaking (PSU) NTPC controls around 25 per cent of India's power capacity. It continues to increase installed capacity, in thermal as well as renewables (solar, wind, green hydrogen) and hydropower and pumped hydro, and also has backward integration into coal mining, and explored nuclear.
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
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